Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Updated Index for a new year

Well a new year is upon us and a couple amazing things have happened to the stock market and to Tiger Woods. The analysis can be broken up into two periods:

[Period 1 - 2009 Rebound]

In 2009 two great things happened:

1) First, Tiger came back from surgery and did quite well.
2) Second, the market has rebounded.

The chart below shows an amazing continuing correlation between Tigers play and the performance of the DOW. In order to see the small up tick in the DOW relative to the longer period of time, the DOW line has been changed from a Polynomial Trend, to a Moving Average.

The same correlation can be seen.

(click image for full size)

[Period 2 - 2010 Prediction]

Unfortunately for us, the end of 2009 once again points to gloom. In December, Tiger's personal life has slammed the door on the rally. Tiger has announced he will take a break from golf completely. If this happens, and we assume he does not play in a series of tournaments, there will be a drastic fall in the DOW again. This fall is expected to happen slowly in Q1 2010 and more drastically in Q2 2010 and Q3 2010.

Of course this all depends on how long Tiger takes a break for and how well he comes back.

(click Image for full size)

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